Institutional Power and Competitive Geoeconomics: Asean’s Strategic Adaptation in The Wake of India's Absence and Fta Rivalry

Abstract

Amid the rapidly shifting geopolitical and geoeconomic landscape of the Indo-Pacific, ASEAN’s institutional centrality—particularly through the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)—is facing unprecedented challenges. India’s withdrawal from RCEP disrupted the anticipated strategic balance, increasing institutional dependence on China and weakening ASEAN’s soft balancing capacity. At the same time, the rise of high-standard free trade agreements (FTAs) such as the CPTPP and IPEF has created competitive structures, undermining RCEP’s normative power and ASEAN’s regional influence. This study employs a dual theoretical framework combining institutional power and geoeconomics to analyze ASEAN’s strategic adjustments under mounting external pressures. It examines the institutional impact of India’s absence and China’s growing role within RCEP, while comparing the structural and normative influence of CPTPP and IPEF. Findings reveal that ASEAN has pursued multi-level strategic adaptations: strengthening intra-regional institutional capacity, diversifying partnerships, and leveraging multi-layered institutional structures to preserve strategic flexibility. The paper argues that ASEAN’s ability to maintain centrality depends on enhancing institutional cohesion, deepening intra-regional coordination, and proactively shaping emerging regional orders. Without appropriate reforms, ASEAN risks marginalization amid intensifying institutional competition and growing polarization.